EC — Ecopetrol S.A.

Summary of Ecopetrol's Q2 2026 Earnings Call

1. Key Financial Results and Metrics:

• Revenue: COP 4.2 trillion, up 35% year-over-year.
• EBITDA: COP 17.7 trillion, a 59% increase, with an EBITDA margin of 44%.
• Net Income: COP 6.1 trillion, representing a 235% increase compared to Q2 2025, and the highest quarterly result since Q4 2022.
• Cash Position: COP 11.3 trillion, with operating cash flow of COP 14.1 trillion and free cash flow of COP 6 trillion.
• Gross Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio: 2x at the group level, 1.3x excluding ISA's debt.

2. Strategic Updates and Business Highlights:

• Successful exploration with the drilling of 8 wells in H1 2026, including the Copa Sul-1 and Sandia-1 discoveries, enhancing gas resource potential.
• Continued investment focus with USD 2.9 billion executed in H1 2026, primarily in Colombia (71%).
• Refining segment achieved record throughput of 439,000 barrels per day and gross margins of USD 29.8 per barrel.
• Transportation volumes increased by 4% year-over-year, optimizing logistics and deliveries.
• Gas supply initiatives positioned Ecopetrol as the leading supplier of Colombia's natural gas, covering approximately 62% of demand.

3. Forward Guidance and Outlook:

• Production target for 2026 maintained at 730,000 to 740,000 barrels per day, with actions in place to recover volumes affected by recent blockades.
• Anticipation of a gradual production recovery in H2 2026, despite potential challenges from the El Niño phenomenon.
• Continued focus on operational efficiency and capital discipline to support sustainable growth.

4. Bad News, Challenges, or Points of Concern:

• Production disruptions due to a 76-day blockade in the Meta department, which impacted key projects and resulted in deferred production of up to 23,000 barrels per day.
• Increased costs due to inflationary pressures and a new wealth tax impacting net income.
• Regulatory and environmental compliance challenges, particularly in exploratory activities, which may affect project timelines.
• Uncertainty regarding the new government's policies on fuel pricing and the management of the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC), with potential impacts on cash flow and financial planning.

5. Notable Q&A Insights:

• Management expressed confidence in meeting production targets despite recent challenges, citing recovery actions already underway.
• Discussions with the new government regarding fuel pricing have been limited, but there is an expectation for more structured dialogue moving forward.
• The Brava Energia acquisition is expected to contribute approximately 42,000 barrels per day to Ecopetrol's production once consolidated in Q3 2026.
• The company is actively exploring options for portfolio rotation to manage debt levels effectively, although current debt levels are considered healthy.

Overall, Ecopetrol reported a strong financial performance in Q2 2026, driven by favorable market conditions and operational efficiencies, while also navigating significant challenges related to production disruptions and regulatory compliance. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic with strategic initiatives aimed at sustaining growth and enhancing shareholder value.