MEOH — Methanex Corporation

Methanex Corporation Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary

1. Key Financial Results and Metrics:

• Average Realized Price: $331 per tonne
• Produced Sales: Approximately 2.4 million tonnes
• Adjusted EBITDA: $180 million
• Adjusted Net Loss: $11 million
• Cash Position: $425 million at year-end; $300 million remaining on Term Loan A after repaying $75 million in Q4 and an additional $50 million since the start of 2026.

2. Strategic Updates and Business Highlights:

• Achieved the best safety performance in company history over the past two years, with zero Tier 1 process safety incidents.
• Increased methanol production in Q4, particularly from newly acquired assets in Texas, despite some unplanned outages.
• Integration of acquired OCI assets is ongoing, with $30 million in synergies targeted by the end of 2026.
• Focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility, prioritizing debt repayment.

3. Forward Guidance and Outlook:

• Expected first-quarter average realized price between $330 and $340 per tonne, with slightly higher adjusted EBITDA anticipated compared to Q4 2025.
• Projected equity production for 2026 is approximately 9 million tonnes of methanol, with variations expected based on operational factors.
• Monitoring global market dynamics, particularly in light of recent geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains.

4. Bad News, Challenges, or Points of Concern:

• Adjusted EBITDA decreased compared to 2025 due to lower average realized prices and immediate fixed cost recognition from plant outages.
• Current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose risks to methanol supply reliability, particularly from Iran, potentially impacting pricing and customer demand.
• Seasonal gas constraints and pipeline failures in Chile resulted in lost production of approximately 75,000 tonnes.
• Structural gas supply challenges in New Zealand continue to pose operational risks.

5. Notable Q&A Insights:

• Management acknowledged elevated costs due to unabsorbed costs from outages and ongoing integration expenses from the OCI acquisition.
• The company is committed to maintaining supply reliability for customers amidst rising prices and potential demand destruction in the methanol market.
• Methanol pricing dynamics are influenced by rising olefins prices, which may offset some affordability concerns for MTO producers.
• There is no current damage reported to methanol facilities in the Middle East, but gas supply from Israel to Egypt has ceased, impacting operations.
• Methanex is closely monitoring the situation and prioritizing customer supply security while navigating the evolving market landscape.

Overall, Methanex is navigating a complex environment with a focus on operational stability, financial health, and strategic integration, while remaining vigilant to external market pressures and geopolitical risks.