SUPV Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary

Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary

1. Key Financial Results and Metrics

Net Loss: Reported an attributable net loss of ARS 19.5 billion, an improvement from a loss of ARS 55 billion in Q3 2025.
Loan Growth: Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year, with corporate loans up 25% quarter-over-quarter, now representing 63% of the portfolio.
Asset Quality: Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio increased to 5% from 3.9% in the previous quarter, reflecting industry trends amid heightened credit stress.
Cost of Risk: Reached 10.4% for Q4, with expectations for stabilization in 2026.
Net Interest Margin (NIM): Rebounded to 16.9%, supported by lower funding costs and improved yields.
CET1 Ratio: Strengthened to 15.4%, up 220 basis points quarter-over-quarter, indicating a solid capital position.

2. Strategic Updates and Business Highlights

Focus on Corporate Lending: The bank is prioritizing corporate lending while moderating retail loan origination due to elevated risk.
Digital Transformation: Continued enhancement of the Supervielle app as a financial hub, with over 70% of transactions now digital.
Integration with InvertirOnline (EOL): Accelerated cross-selling initiatives and focus on affluent clients to expand assets under management.
Cost Control: Personnel expenses decreased by 6% sequentially, contributing to improved margins.

3. Forward Guidance and Outlook

Loan Growth: Expected real growth in loans between 25% and 30% for 2026, primarily driven by corporate lending.
Deposits: Projected to expand by 20% to 25%, supported by stronger client relationships and the recent tax amnesty law.
NPL and Cost of Risk: Anticipated NPL ratio to range between 5% and 6% for 2026, with cost of risk expected between 6% and 6.5%.
Profitability: ROE guidance for 2026 set at 4% to 9%, with expectations for sequential improvements throughout the year.

4. Bad News, Challenges, or Points of Concern

Elevated NPLs: The increase in NPLs reflects broader industry challenges and may hinder profitability if not managed effectively.
Credit Stress: The banking sector is experiencing significant credit stress, which could impact future loan performance and provisioning.
Market Conditions: High interest rates and restrictive monetary policies continue to constrain liquidity and credit demand.
Competitive Pressures: The emergence of fintechs poses a risk to traditional banking models, particularly in the retail segment.

5. Notable Q&A Insights

Capital Management: Management indicated that the current CET1 ratio is sufficient to support growth, but no dividends are expected for 2026 due to the recent losses.
Market Sentiment: There is cautious optimism regarding potential government reforms and their impact on the banking sector, though significant improvements in market sentiment are not yet evident.
Retail Credit Outlook: Management acknowledged the contraction in retail loans but expressed confidence in gradual recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve.
Competitive Positioning: The bank remains selective in dollar lending, emphasizing a cautious approach to mitigate currency mismatch risks.

Overall, Grupo Supervielle's Q4 2025 results reflect a transitional period with strong loan growth and improving margins, despite facing challenges related to asset quality and market conditions. The outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, contingent on macroeconomic stabilization and effective risk management.

SUPV — Grupo Supervielle S.A.